15 Nov 2003

SAN JOSE An unusually high number of fall flu cases in Northern California 
has some doctors and public officials worried that a particularly nasty 
influenza bug is preparing to make plenty of people sick come winter.

Kaiser Permanente, which helps monitor flu activity statewide for the 
California Department of Health Services, documented 18 cases of influenza 
type A during the past week. One or two cases is more typical for this time 
of year, and Kaiser usually catalogs 50 cases weekly at the height of the 
flu season.

"I've never seen a blip that big," said Dr. Roger Baxter, an infectious 
disease consultant for Kaiser Permanente. "It's extremely unusual for this 
number of cases to appear before December or January.”

Four of the cases reported in the last week were in the Sacramento area and 
all were influenza type A, the most common form of flu in adults. Santa Clara,
 San Francisco, Alameda and Contra Costa counties also have seen flu cases 
during the past two weeks.

Another worrisome sign, Baxter said, is the high percentage of blood samples 
taken from people with flu symptoms that tested positive for influenza. 
Typically, when 10 percent of tests are positive, that’s a sign of a 
possible outbreak, but last week, 25 percent of Kaiser’s flu surveillance 
tests were positive, he said.

Still, sporadic flu outbreaks can occur this early, and officials say they 
are not sure whether the one-week spike is more than a one-time surge. 
But Baxter said it might not be worth waiting to find out.

"I would encourage people to go out and get their flu vaccinations now," he said.